Gridiron Challenge: Week 7 preview

By Tristan H. Cockcroft
ESPN.com
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Take a look at the points leaders at the quarterback position in Gridiron Challenge. Three of the top seven are on bye (Kurt Warner, sixth with 114 GC points, and Donovan McNabb, tied for seventh with 94) or hurt (Tony Romo, third with 121). Two others -- Drew Brees, second with 124, and Philip Rivers, tied for fourth with 119 -- are scheduled for road games against top-10 pass defenses. No. 1 quarterback Aaron Rodgers (127 points) will play the Colts, who are tied with the Titans for the fewest passing touchdowns allowed (one).

Neither Brees' nor Rodgers' matchup worries me, especially not in a week that's thin on alternatives.

But with people left scrambling to find possible replacements -- for example, I owned Warner and also was one of the 22.5 percent who picked Romo in Week 6 -- focusing my column on the quarterback position first this week makes sense. One reason is that not many stellar candidates exist for this week's "Bull market." Same goes for the "One-week ponies." That's pretty frustrating.

Still, you have to pick two quarterbacks in the GC. As such, once the obvious guys, Brees, Jay Cutler, Rodgers and Brett Favre are off the board, I see the following five quarterbacks as the strongest combinations of value and matchup for Week 7:

Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers (@CIN, 6.5 price tag): His team is finally shaping up as a healthy unit coming out of the bye -- unless Willie Parker's knee setback becomes a big issue. Roethlisberger will beat up on a team that's reeling. Big Ben remains the focal point of the offense, and in Week 5 against the Jaguars, the Steelers finally seemed to return to their 2007 ways of throwing in red zone situations.

Matt Schaub, Texans (DET, 6.9): I love this matchup. Can't stress it enough. The Lions are as bad defensively as any team I've seen take the field this decade, and because the Texans aren't much better on the defensive side, Schaub frequently is forced to throw the ball 40 times a game. This is a week I'd look for about 30 pass attempts, but the Lions allow 8.9 yards per attempt and one touchdown per 15.7 attempts. To do the math -- I'm all about speeding up the process -- that's about 260 yards and two scores.

Eli Manning, 49ers (SF, 6.6): Manning is coming off Monday's atrocious outing but is back home and facing a team a little less likely to go all-out. (The Browns were pretty desperate and playing to save their season.) San Francisco has allowed 876 yards and six scores through the air the past three weeks.

Jake Delhomme, Panthers (NO, 5.9): I like both him and his offense in a home game, and New Orleans' weakness on defense is in the secondary. Delhomme passed for two scores without being intercepted in each of these teams' two meetings in 2006, and he has Steve Smith back at his peak performance level.

Jeff Garcia, Buccaneers (SEA, 5.3): He's a great game manager who won't hurt you and can rise up to carry a GC squad when the matchup calls. This matchup, folks, absolutely calls for using Garcia. Seattle's defense is a mess right now. It has allowed 469 passing yards and five scores the past two weeks and has totaled no interceptions and only three sacks during that span. No pressure on Garcia means he'll step up.

Bull market: Invest now

Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions (5.2 price tag): The Roy Williams trade is huge for Megatron, because if you look at the Lions' total number of targets, Williams had 39 and Johnson had 45. That's nearly an even split, and an offense with its share of problems getting going cut into Johnson's value. With Williams gone, Johnson can step up and be that bona fide No. 1 receiver, that 15-targets-a-week type, especially because Detroit frequently finds itself trailing on the scoreboard and airing things out late. I don't deny that opposing defenses might double-cover him more often, leading to some forgettable days, but I'll welcome to my team a guy priced this low but getting many throws sent his way. Besides, if you look at Johnson's schedule for the next four weeks, you'll see that he won't face a single team ranked among the top 10 pass defenses in the NFL.

Chris Johnson, RB, Titans (4.9): LenDale White's shoulder has been acting up recently, and that could be just the window Johnson needs to steal this job and -- no pun intended -- run with it. White had been a goal-line vulture up to this point, but if Johnson gets looks in those situations, he'll become the instant favorite for rookie of the year honors. Even if he doesn't, he'll be battling the Chiefs and Colts the next two weeks, and those teams have allowed 171.6 rushing yards per game with 13 total scores.

Steve Slaton, RB, Texans (5.4): It's time to hop on the Slaton bandwagon in the GC, if you haven't already. The second and third of the Texans' back-to-back-to-back fantasy-friendly matchups are most promising for the team's running game. Houston might have engaged in a bit of a shootout with the Dolphins -- although admittedly, the Texans fired most of the shots -- but these next two matchups represent games in which the Texans can mount an early lead, then play clock control with Slaton. Do you honestly believe the Texans can't manhandle the Lions and Bengals on their home turf? The Detroit and Cincinnati defenses have combined to allow 163.3 rushing yards per game, 1.36 rushing touchdowns per game, 4.6 yards per carry and 22.4 fantasy points per game to running backs.

One-week ponies for Week 7

Marion Barber, RB, Cowboys (@STL, 6.5 price tag): There's never really a wrong week to use him, but if there's a right one to pick Barber, it has to be this one. Tony Romo's absence -- and Felix Jones', too -- practically guarantees the Cowboys will hand Barber the ball a minimum of 20 times. Be aware that the two backs who ran 20 or more times against St. Louis' defense this season, Julius Jones and Clinton Portis, totaled 269 yards and three scores on the ground. Overall, opponents are averaging 169.0 rushing yards per game with nine touchdowns against the Rams.

Willie Parker, RB, Steelers (@CIN, 5.9): He's back, and he'll face a familiar opponent, the Bengals, against whom he has averaged 113.7 rushing yards in six career meetings and has scored six touchdowns. A minor setback with his knee on Wednesday bears watching, but if Parker can practice by Friday, he should be fine to use.

Pittsburgh Steelers' defense (@CIN, 5.4): Look at their opponent. The Bengals have averaged an NFL-worst 3.1 yards per rushing attempt, with Chris Perry a total bust as their starter. They'll probably use a running back by committee, but Cedric Benson is useless on passing downs and Kenny Watson was so favored by the team that he was released a little more than a week ago. (But he's back on the roster.) Meanwhile, their quarterback, Ryan Fitzpatrick, has turned over the ball six times in two starts. Cincinnati totaled 23 points in these teams' two meetings in 2007, and remember, Carson Palmer was the starting quarterback in both of those. Expect the Steelers to shut down this offense and reel in a healthy dose of turnovers.

Hines Ward, WR, Steelers (@CIN, 5.4): He has routinely routed the Bengals, including a pair of two-touchdown efforts against them in 2007, and has totaled 13 scores in 19 games against Cincinnati. To date, Ward has been the more reliable Steelers receiver than Santonio Holmes, with 24 catches to Holmes' 17, so keep riding that trend.

Wes Welker, WR, Patriots (DEN, 5.0): The Broncos rank dead last in the league at defending the pass, and Champ Bailey is about the only thing they have going right for them on that side of the ball. Problem is, Bailey tends to stick close to his opponent's No. 1 receiver, so Randy Moss will be the focus of his attention Monday night. That leaves Dre' Bly and the Broncos' safeties to draw Welker in coverage, and that's where the standout matchups tend to lie. By the way, Welker has averaged 10 targets per game thus far, more than enough for him to have a huge night.

No chance they'll be in my Week 7 lineup

Dwayne Bowe, Ronnie Brown, Chris Chambers, Laveranues Coles, Larry Johnson, Julius Jones, Willis McGahee, Randy Moss, J.T. O'Sullivan, Philip Rivers.

Tristan's Week 7 lineup
Total points: 659.
Percentage: 93.7. Overall rank: 12,446th.
Ranking in Fantasy Editorial Group: 317th.

Pos.PlayerTeamPointsLockMkt.Diff.
QBMatt SchaubTexans786.96.9--
QBEli ManningGiants816.66.6--
RBMarion BarberCowboys996.56.5--
RBSteve SlatonTexans645.45.4--
WRAndre JohnsonTexans585.86.10.3
WRCalvin JohnsonLions535.25.2--
TEBo ScaifeTitans263.93.9--
KKris BrownTexans404.24.2--
D/STPittsburgh Steelers defense/special teams685.45.4--
Pos.: Player position; Points: Year-to-date points earned in GC; Lock: Price locked in on my roster; Mkt.: Current market price; Diff.: Difference in price.

Tristan H. Cockcroft is a fantasy baseball, football and hockey analyst for ESPN.com. You can e-mail him here.



 
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